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Mapping environmental conflicts and cooperation

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Civil War in Darfur, Sudan

Type of conflict main
Intensity 4
Region
Northern Africa
Time 2003 ‐ ongoing
Countries Sudan
Resources Agricultural / Pastoral Land, Water
Conflict Summary The war in Darfur, Sudan is frequently cited as a classic example of a 'climate conflict’. Climate variability in the Sahel, which culminated with...
Civil War in Darfur, Sudan
The war in Darfur, Sudan is frequently cited as a classic example of a 'climate conflict’. Climate variability in the Sahel, which culminated with devastating droughts in the 1970s and 1980s, has arguably played an important role in pitting different groups against one another and against the Government of Sudan. However, the impact of climatic changes in Darfur cannot fully be understood without acknowledging the fundamental imbalances in Sudan's political economy, the profoundly destabilizing effect of Arab-African racial tensions and the erosion of customary land management institutions.
Conceptual Model

Climate Change

The steady decline of rainfall and droughts in the 1970s and 1980s led to deteriorating environmental conditions in the Sahel, culminating with the drought and famine of 1984/1985.

Intermediary Mechanisms

Nomadic pastoralists living in the northern Darfur were particularly affected by the deteriorating environmental conditions in the Sahel, forcing them to migrate further south into areas inhabited by settled farmer communities. The increased migration from northern Darfur incited clashes between different local groups, most often divided along an Arab-African and/or farmer-herder dichotomy, over land resources. Conflicts over land were accompanied by the progressive weakening of customary land management institutions and the government’s attempt to nationalize unregistered land.

Fragility and Conflict Risks

Against this backdrop, an increasing number of Darfurians grew discontent with the central government in Khartoum, fostering attempts for regional autonomy. Increasing ethnic polarization was subsequently exploited by the government in order to weaken Darfurian rebels. The outbreak of the war in Darfur in 2003 has led to several hundred thousand fatalities and more than 2.5 million people displaced.

Climate ChangeEnvironmental ChangeIntermediary MechanismsFragility and Conflict RisksSocial and Economic DriversChanging climate leads to decreased water availability.Extreme weather event is consistent with predictions regarding more frequent and/or intense extreme weather events.In-migration leads to demographic change.Demographic changes increase pressures on available land resources.Freshwater becomes scarce as an essential resource. Land scarcity hampers agricultural production.Extreme weather event leads to scarcity of essential natural resources.Reduced availability of/access to natural resources induces migration.State elites strategically use resource scarcity for political advantage/power.Migration leads to conflicts between migrants and residents.Reduced availability of/access to natural resources provokes discontent with the state.Use of resource, livelihood, and health pressures for political advantage/power increases tensions between groups.A slow change in climatic conditions, particularly temperature and precipitation.Gradual Change in Temperature and/or PrecipitationAn increase in the scarcity of clean water and/or an increased variability in water supply.Increased Water ScarcityAn increase in the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events, such as floods or droughts.More Frequent / Intense Extreme Weather EventsA specific extreme weather event such as a flood or a storm.Extreme Weather EventVoluntary or involuntary movement of people from one area to another.Migration patternsChange in population density, age structure, or ethnic makeup.Demographic ChangeReduced availability of/ access to land.Increased Land ScarcityReduced availability of essential natural resources, such as land and water.Change in Access / Availability of Natural Resources(In)voluntary long and short-term movements of people within or across state boundaries.Displacements / MigrationUse of resource, livelihood, and health pressures for political advantage/power.PoliticisationNon-violent or violent tensions and conflicts between different societal groups.Grievances between Societal GroupsChallenge to the state's legitimacy, ranging from peaceful protest to violent attempts at overthrowing the government.Anti-State Grievances
Context Factors
  • Group Focused Enmity
  • History of Conflict
  • Political Marginalization
  • Proliferation of Weapons
  • Unresponsive Government
  • Weak Institutions
Conflict History

The war in Darfur, Sudan (2003-present) has received considerable media attention as a primary example of mass violence in conjunction with adverse climate change (Ban Ki Moon, 2007). It can roughly be broken down into three conflict dimensions: the first opposing the Government of Sudan to various rebel groups fighting for the regional autonomy of Darfur, the second opposing different local groups, which compete over land use and are often divided along an Arab-African and/or farmer-herder dichotomy and the third defined by factional disputes within the rebel groups (see Communal conflicts in Darfur). Fighting between these groups and the government as well as mass violence against the civilian population has led to several hundred thousand direct and indirect fatalities and more than 2.5 million displaced people (UCDP, 2014; Auswärtiges Amt, 2012). Two multilateral military interventions have been conducted in Darfur without succeeding in ending the violence. The humanitarian situation on the ground remains difficult.

A climate culprit in Darfur?
Originally, the war in Darfur evolved out of rebel groups’ struggle against the economic and political marginalization of Darfur by the central government in Khartoum. Yet, it became rapidly intermingled with local conflicts over resources, whose origins can partly be traced back to the Sahelian droughts of the 1970s and 1980s. Whether these droughts were caused by anthropogenic climate change or instead resulted from natural climate variability is still a matter of scientific debate (see for instance Niang, Ruppel, Abdabro et al., 2014). Claims about a direct link should therefore be considered with caution, even if they come from very respectable sources such as the current Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-Moon (2007). Yet irrespective of this scientific debate about climate change versus climate variability, the Darfur case is illustrative of how conflicts may develop when societies are unable to adapt to the consequences of climatic changes with peaceful means. And these lessons matter because there is strong evidence and scientific agreement that climate change will generally bring about intensifying and more frequent droughts, despite the uncertainty about the causes of any single event such as the 1980s drought in the Sahel.

Drought, migration and resource competition
Prior to 2003, Darfur had already witnessed several armed clashes between different local groups, most often divided along an Arab-African and/or farmer-herder dichotomy and mostly revolving around issues of competing land use. These conflicts were driven to an important part by deteriorating environmental conditions in the Sahel and the need for northern pastoralists to relocate further south, into areas mainly inhabited by settled farmer communities (De Waal, 2007a). Rainfall in Darfur had constantly been declining in the 1960s, 1970s and the first half of the 1980s, culminating with the drought and famine of 1984/85. Nomadic pastoralists living in the northern part of the region were hit particularly hard, whereas populations in the southern part of Darfur were somewhat less severely affected. During the 1980s and the 1990s, a high number of northern pastoralists thus relocated further south, into areas mainly inhabited by settled farmer communities (De Juan, 2015). At that time, the southern part of Darfur was already experiencing mounting pressures on local resources, due to natural population growth and an influx of migrants from neighboring Chad. In combination with increased migration from northern Darfur and the gradual abandonment of traditional fallow systems, these factors led to a vicious cycle of overexploited soils, deforestation and further depleted resources (De Waal, 2007a; Leroy, 2009).
 
Weakened institutions and 'divide and rule' politics
This adverse development was accompanied by the progressive weakening of customary land management institutions. The Hakura system, traditionally responsible for allocating land and coping with drought, came under stress, both by the reduced availability of land, and by efforts of the central government in Khartoum to nationalize unregistered land in Darfur. The following nationalization process created opportunities for northern pastoralists to circumvent customary law and extend their claims on the land of southern farmers, encouraging farmer-herder violence (Unruh & Abdul-Jalil, 2012).
The situation was such that an increasing number of Darfurians grew discontent with the central government in Khartoum, which did little to avert famine and quell disputes between migrants and residents. To the contrary, its ham-fisted counter-insurgency tactics often revolved around what Sudan expert Alex de Waal (2007b:1039) has described as ‘Khartoum’s penchant for addressing local conflicts by distributing arms to one side to suppress the other’. 

'Arab' - 'African' divide
Matters were further compounded by a racist discourse affirming the superiority of ‘Arab’ groups over ‘African’ groups, which was both encouraged by elites in Khartoum, and a pan-arabic nationalism propagated by Libya’s Muammar al-Qaddhafi. Grievances over structural inequalities between Darfur and the central regions of Sudan had collectively been shared by different Darfurian groups and are a major reason for the formation of the ‘Sudan Liberation Movement/Army’ (SLM/A) and ‘Justice and Equality Movement’ (JEM) and their struggle for regional autonomy. Increasing ethnic polarization created however new divisions within Darfur, which could be exploited by the government in order to weaken the Darfurian rebels (see Conflict between Masalit and Reizegat Abbala). This explains the dual nature of the war in Darfur, as both a war about autonomy and an inter-ethnic conflict.

Resolution Efforts

Since 2003 the Government of Sudan has engaged in several rounds of talks with the Darfurian rebels. Mediated by Chad, Qatar, the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) these talks have, however, not succeeded in putting an end to the violence. Lacking commitment on both sides to respect ceasefires and agreements, but also factional disputes within the rebel movements are seriously undermining the peace process. The 2006 Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) was not signed by all rebel groups and the 2011 Doha Peace Agreement with the JEM has barely had any effect on the situation on the ground. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for the Sudanese president Omar al Bashir, his minister of defense and various rebel leaders, which has further complicated the diplomatic relationships with the Sudanese government (UCDP, 2014).

Peacekeeping operations
Two multilateral military interventions have been conducted in Darfur: The African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS) from 2004 to 2008 and the United Nations African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) - a hybrid UN-AU intervention - since 2008. But reluctance of the Sudanese government to accommodate UN-troops on its soil as well as reservations of western countries to provide the mission with necessary military equipment have hampered the effectiveness of peacekeeping operations in Darfur (Brosché, 2008).

Humanitarian action
The humanitarian operation in Darfur is one of the largest in the world. It has drastically reduced the rate of acute malnutrition as well as crude mortality rates. But widespread insecurity in Darfur as well as bureaucratic obstacles and the harassment of aid organizations by government officials make the work of NGOs difficult. Following the issue of an international arrest warrant against president Bashir in 2009, the government of Sudan banned several international NGOs such as Oxfam, Care and Médecins Sans Frontičres and withdrew the authorization of several Sudanese NGOs (Auswärtiges Amt, 2012).

Regional instability
The security situation in Darfur is further compounded by different regional factors. The Libyan crisis of 2011 has facilitated the flow of weapons to Darfur and the implication of Darfurian rebels in the civil war in neighboring South Sudan since 2013 puts additional strains on the conflict resolution process. Yet, the level of violence in Darfur has decreased compared to the years 2003 to 2005 (UCDP, 2014; Auswärtiges Amt, 2012).

Resources and livelihoods
A solution to the crisis in Darfur needs to take into account the interaction between the environmental, humanitarian and political dimensions of the conflict. Violence in Darfur is compounding longstanding processes of environmental degradation, thus worsening environmental conflict drivers (Bromwich, 2008). The Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD) explicitly acknowledges the need to put an end to environmental degradation and mitigate local conflicts over water and pastures. The European Union and the United Nations Environmental Project are working on the development of major water catchment projects. The Darfur Land Commission (DLC) is currently documenting customary land use mechanisms in order to facilitate the co-integration of formal and customary land use institutions. And UNEP works with Tufts on enhancing pastoralist livelihoods in the eastern Sahel (Buchanan-Smith, Bromwich, and Nassef, 2013; Krätli, El Dirani, and Young, 2013). Generally, the Government of Sudan has been willing to embrace international initiatives in the domain of environmental protection. However, limited capacity and weak coordination mechanisms between the federal and regional level as well as with civil society actors have undermined implementation (Mohamed and Egemi, 2012).

Intensities & Influences
conflict intensity scale
Intensities
International / Geopolitical Intensity
Human Suffering

Influences
Environmental Influences
Societal Influences

Manifest Crisis
Fatalities
300 000
Violent Conflict Yes
Salience within nation National
Mass Displacement More than 100.000 or more than 10% of the country's population are displaced within the country.
Cross Border Mass Displacement Best estimate that more than 100.000 or more than 10% of country population are displaced across borders.
Destination Countries S. Sudan, Central African Rep., Chad
Resources
Agricultural / Pastoral Land, Water
Resolution Success
Reduction in Violence Violence reduced significantly, but did not cede.
Resolve of displacement problems Displacement continues to cause discontent and/or other problems.
Reduction in geographical scope There has been no reduction in geographical scope.
Increased capacity to address grievance in the future There is no increased capacity to address grievances in the future.
Grievance Resolution Grievances have been partially addressed.
Causal Attribution of Decrease in Conflict Intensity There has been no reduction in intensity
General opencollapse
Country Data in Comparison
ConflictNoData Created with Sketch.
Fault Lines Defining Conflict Parties
Purely Environmental | Cultural   ♦   Occupational   ♦   Economic   ♦   Urban / Rural   ♦   National / International conflict   ♦   Sub-national political


Actors
Participation Conflict Party     Conflict Resolution Facilitator
Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A)
Functional GroupNon-State Violent Actor
Geographical ScaleInternal National
Government of Sudan
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleInternal National
UN-AU Mission in Darfur (UNAMID)
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleExternal
Government of Qatar
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleExternal
Government of Chad
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleExternal
African Union
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleExternal
United Nations (UN)
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleExternal
Justice and Equality Movement (JEM)
Functional GroupNon-State Violent Actor
Geographical ScaleInternal National
Entry Points for Resilience and Peace Building
1 Peacekeeping The African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS) and the United Nations African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) have conducted peacekeeping interventions in Darfur.
1 Mediation & arbitration The Government of Sudan has engaged in several rounds of talks, mediated by Chad, Qatar, the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN), with the Darfurian rebels. However, these talks have not been successful in ending the violence.
1 Treaty/agreement The 2006 Darfur Peace Agreement and the 2011 Doha Peace Agreement have been largely unsuccessful in putting an end to the violence due to lack of commitment.
2 Humanitarian & Development aid Humanitarian operations in Darfur have reduced the rate of malnutrition as well as mortality rates. However, widespread insecurity and an uncooperative government have created great obstacles for the continuation of such operations.
1 Environmental restoration & protection Various international initiatives concerning environmental protection are being conducted in Sudan.
Further Details opencollapse
Conflict Characterization
Character of the contested good Common-pool resource: No one can be excluded from use but the good is depleted.
Structure of decision-making power / interdependence Mixed: The abilities of parties to affect the environmental resource is mixed.
Broad conflict characterization Resource Capture is present.
Ecological Marginalization is present.
Data of involved Countries
Resources and Materials opencollapse
Conflict References References with URL