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Syrian Civil War: The Role of Climate Change

Type of conflict main
Intensity 4
Region
Western Asia
Time 2011 ‐ ongoing
Countries Syria
Resources Agricultural / Pastoral Land, Water, Resilience of the environment
Conflict Summary Several studies have pointed to a link between climate change and the civil war in Syria, which started in 2011 and is still ongoing. The direct causes of...
Syrian Civil War: The Role of Climate Change
Several studies have pointed to a link between climate change and the civil war in Syria, which started in 2011 and is still ongoing. The direct causes of the conflict relate to popular discontent with the government. Yet the mishandling of a major drought in the preceding years likely fed into this discontent, and climate change increased the likelihood for such a drought.
Conceptual Model

Climate Change

Over the past decades, Syria has experienced an intensification of drought cycles. Between 2006 and 2010, Syria suffered a five-year drought that strongly hit the population. Some scholars believe that the unusually long drought, which led to the uprisings in 2011, was made more likely by a regional trend towards higher temperatures and drier winters.

Intermediary Mechanisms

Over the unusually long period of drought, nearly 800,000 people lost their livelihood. During this time, the population received little relief from the government. The situation triggered a massive exodus of 50,000 families, who left rural areas to migrate to cities in 2010. The food price hikes which followed the drought worsened the humanitarian situation in Syria. Additionally, the regime implemented a series of economic policies that strongly favored a small elite group. The lack of transparency and corruption behind these policies added to the discontent of the population.

Fragility and Conflict Risks

In 2011, the resentment of agricultural communities towards the government for its failure to address basic needs led to protests against the regime. Although the protests started peacefully, the repression of the government against demonstrators evolved into a bloody conflict between authorities and various rebel groups. The civil war in Syria has forced almost half of the population to flee their home and has led to a competition over resources and alignment along ethnic lines.

Climate ChangeEnvironmental ChangeIntermediary MechanismsFragility and Conflict RisksSocial and Economic DriversExtreme weather event is consistent with predictions regarding more frequent and/or intense extreme weather events.Economic developments reduce available natural resources.Extreme weather event leads to scarcity of essential natural resources.Extreme weather event destroys/threatens livelihoods.Extreme weather event reveals a lacking capacity of the state to manage crises and/or reduces state capacity.Reduced availability of/access to natural resources reduces available resources and ecosystem services.Reduced availability of/access to natural resources undermines resource-dependent livelihoods.Loss of livelihoods leads to migration.Livelihood insecurity reveals lacking capacity of the state to manage crises.Reduced availability of/access to natural resources undermines state capacity.Reduced availability of/access to natural resources leads to volatile food prices.Migration leads to conflicts between migrants and residents.Problems related to migration/displacements lead to growing discontent with the state.Reduced availability of/access to natural resources leads to distributive conflicts between societal groups.The perceived inadequacy of state capacity leads to growing discontent with the state.Food price volatility provokes growing discontent with the state.An increase in the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events, such as floods or droughts.More Frequent / Intense Extreme Weather EventsA specific extreme weather event such as a flood or a storm.Extreme Weather EventA broad concept to cover economic growth in general but also specific economic changes or changes of incentives.Economic DevelopmentGrowing scarcity of essential natural resources.Natural Resource ScarcityReduced availability of essential natural resources, such as land and water.Change in Access / Availability of Natural ResourcesA threat or destruction of livelihoods dependent on the availability of environmental resources / goods.Livelihood InsecurityReduced capacity of the state to fulfil basic functions deemed necessary by the population and/or reduced public support for state authorities.Reduced State Capacity and/or Legitimacy(In)voluntary long and short-term movements of people within or across state boundaries.Displacements / MigrationStrong fluctuations in the prices of foodstuffs, such as cereals or livestock.Volatile Food PricesNon-violent or violent tensions and conflicts between different societal groups.Grievances between Societal GroupsChallenge to the state's legitimacy, ranging from peaceful protest to violent attempts at overthrowing the government.Anti-State Grievances
Context Factors
  • Dysfunctional Resource Management
  • Water-stressed Area
  • Cut in Consumer Subsidies
  • Eroded Social Contract
  • Unresponsive Government
Conflict History

In March 2011, “peaceful protests” in the rural town of Dara'a in Syria were violently repressed by the government of Bashar Al-Assad and evolved into an armed rebellion. The conflict has further intensified and reports estimate that approximately 220,000 people lost their lives in the conflict by 2015 (Hadid, 2015). A number of scholars have sought to analyse the original causes of the Syrian conflict. Several studies have drawn a link between the protests of March 2011 and climate change. This case study will analyse this potential link.

Strong impacts of the five-year drought (2006-2010)
In 2011, Syria was emerging from a five-year drought (2006-2010), which strongly hit the population, particularly in the North-east part of the country (De Châtel, 2014). Over this unusually long period of drought – during which nearly 800,000 people lost their livelihood according to the UN –, the population received little relief from the Government (De Châtel, 2014, Nafeez, 2013a). The authorities even tried to minimise the extent of the humanitarian crisis to the international community (Femia and Werrell, 2013).

Massive displacement of population
The situation triggered a massive displacement of farmers and herders, who left rural areas to migrate to cities where they settled in shanty towns and were forced to compete with the already poor urban populations over resources (Sowers et al., 2013; Femia and Werrell, 2013). According to the UN, 50,000 families migrated from rural areas in 2010 (Femia and Werrell, 2013). The food price hikes which followed the drought – the price of wheat doubled from 2010 to 2011 – worsened the humanitarian situation in Syria (Nafeez, 2013a).

Failure of the government to address important needs
In 2011, the resentment of agricultural communities towards the government for its failure to address basic needs led the population of the town of Dara'a to the streets to protest peacefully against the regime (De Châtel, 2014). Although the protests started peacefully, the repression of the government against demonstrators spread the wave of protests, which then evolved into a bloody conflict between the authorities and various rebel groups (Nafeez, 2013a.; De Châtel, 2014).

Root causes of the civil war

Climate
There is a plethora of factors which must be taken in to account to explain the root causes of the uprisings in Syria: Some scholars have highlighted a link between climate change and the conflict, stating that the drought which led to the uprisings in 2011 was made more likely by a regional trend towards higher temperatures and drier winters (Werrell, Femia & Sternberg, 2015). Over the past decades, the Mediterranean littoral and the Middle East has warmed up considerably, leading to an intensification of drought cycles. Of the 12 driest winters hitting the region since 1902, 10 have occurred in just the last 20 years. These changes matter as the region receives most of its precipitation during the winter. According to a study from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this change towards drier conditions cannot be explained by natural variability alone. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing, as well as increases in sea surface temperature are major contributing factors as well (Hoerling, Eischeid, Perlwitz et al., 2012). However, a more complete analysis of the country situation shows that there are more causes for conflict and that climate change should rather be considered as a “threat multiplier” than a main cause of the conflict (Femia and Werrell, 2013).

State fragility
The first aspect is the lack of sustainability in the state’s management of agricultural and water policies since 1963 (De Châtel, 2014). Since the military coup which placed the Ba'ath party – Bashar Al-Assad's party – at the head of the state, the party sought to gain public support by granting massive subsidies for water and agriculture (Sowers et al., 2013). For 50 years, the government has been supporting “overambitious” agricultural projects (De Châtel, 2014). Subsidies for water-intensive crops, the promotion of overgrazing as well as inefficient irrigation methods and groundwater extraction led to the depletion of both soils and water (Femia and Werrell, 2013).

Because of these practices, the levels of the aquifers have been decreasing at an alarming rate since the 1960s – a trend which accelerated between the 1980s and the 2000s – whilst the quality of the remaining water in the aquifers has been deteriorating (Ibid.; De Châtel, 2014). Government plans for modernising water management systems were not followed by actions (De Châtel, 2014). Over the years, the inefficient – and sometimes “inexistent” – water policies of the Syrian Government have thus contributed to desertification (Ibid.). The fast growing population, which is partly due to the government policy launched in the 1950s to promote births, accelerated this desertification process (Ibid.).

Removal of Subsidies and Corruption
A second aspect relates to the changes in economic policy since Bashar Al-Assad took power in 2000. In 2008, the dwindling oil production led the government to remove fuel subsidies (Nafeez, 2013b). The skyrocketing oil prices combined with the food price shock put even more pressure on the population (Nafeez, 2013a, Nafeez, 2013b). To address the country’s economic challenges, Bashar Al-Assad put an end to fuel and food subsidies and instead invested in industrial sectors which only benefited a small Alawite elite, the religious group to which Al-Assad belongs (Nafeez, 2013b; Sowers et al., 2013).

The lack of transparency and corruption which developed out of these elitist business activities added to the discontent of the population (Nafeez, 2013b; De Châtel, 2014). For instance, in 2005, water legislation obliged farmers to license wells on their territory – to prevent the digging of illegal wells – and to renew their license each year (De Châtel, 2014). However, this policy led to a high level of corruption amongst officials, who forced farmers to pay bribes in exchange for licenses (Ibid.).This was one of the triggers which led the population of Dara'a to the streets (Ibid.).

Overstating the importance of the drought in the conflict “diverts attention from the core problem”
Beyond these two aspects related to natural resource management, Syrians had many grievances related to political oppression, and the example of revolution in other Arab countries was obviously important in triggering the original protests. Although scientific studies show that climate change has intensified the droughts, its role thus has to be put into context, as one Syria expert wrote: “While climate change may have contributed to worsening the effects of the drought, overstating its importance is an unhelpful distraction that diverts attention away from the core problem: the long-term mismanagement of natural resources” (De Châtel 2014).  Furthermore, an exaggerated focus on climate change shifts the burden of responsibility for the devastation of Syria’s natural resources away from the successive Syrian governments since the 1950s and allows the Assad regime to blame external factors for its own failures” (Ibid.).

Recent Developments
Since March 2011, the civil war in Syria has forced almost half of the population to flee their home. The displacement of the population has deepened fault lines amongst the population, leading to competition over resources and alignment along ethnic lines (De Châtel, 2014; Femia and Werrell, 2013). The emergence of the group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in the region has added another threat to the conflict. Recently, both the government and the ISIL have started diverting water, using it as leverage against each other (EJOLT, 2014). As the country experiences extreme water shortages, controlling water supplies has become a way of controlling territories and of putting pressure on opponents. Some experts argue that control of water will be decisive for who will win this war (Vidal, 2014). Meanwhile, this is an additional pressure on the population who already suffers from malnutrition and health issues and is sometimes forced to drink from puddles on the street to survive (Ibid.).

Resolution Efforts

Failed negotiation attempts of the International Community
Despite several attempts to negotiate peace agreements between the Syrian Government and the rebels, the efforts of the international community have failed to put an end to the civil war in Syria. Several donors including the EU, the UNDP, Kuwait, Russia, Hungary and Japan contribute to fund UN humanitarian operations to address the basic needs of the population and to restore their livelihood (UNDP, 2014).

The conflict is anything but resolved and any efforts aimed at long-term peacebuilding, such as those related to reducing the conflict potential of water scarcity in the region, will only be applicable once violence has stopped in the country.

Measures to address the environmental root causes
The literature indicates a number of steps or measures which could help address the environmental root causes of the conflict. These measures target core weaknesses that led to discontent in the first place. The first critical measure concerns  addressing the effects of climate change in order to ensure the long-term stability and resiliency of the country  (Femia and Werrell, 2013).

Improve water infrastructure
Second, considering the inefficient water infrastructure in the country, scholars deem it necessary to expand efficient irrigation technologies and practices and groundwater monitoring (Gleick, 2014). Several technologies could help reduce the use of water, such as drip-irrigation systems, no-tillage cultivation as well as the use of water-efficient and high-yield crops (Waterbury, 2013).

Improve water management at the national and transboundary level
Third, the authorities would need to establish a stronger legal framework to ensure the enforcement of the laws; water legislation in the 2000s was either not enforced or not existent (De Châtel, 2014). Last but not least,  improving international cooperation over the joint management of shared/transboundary rivers is important (Gleick, 2014). In fact, the lack of agreement amongst Turkey, Syria and Iraq over the management of the Euphrates River might increase the degradation of the soils and the pollution of the water – through salinity and chemicals – and thus intensify the pressure on the population.

According to Erikson and Lorenz, salinity and pollution through chemicals are likely to have “greater, and more immediate” effects on the population in the basin than a reduction in water quantity (Erikson and Lorenz, 2013). Before the eruption of the uprisings, Turkey, Syria and Iraq were on a good track towards cooperation (see Turkey, Syria and Iraq: conflict over the Euphrates-Tigris) (Ibid.). Yet the hostility between the Turkish and Syrian governments makes any short-term cooperation very unlikely, and the role of the PKK, which has been a long-lasting bone of contention between Turkey and Syria, may add further complications in the future.

In conclusion, there is no evidence for a direct link between climate change and the uprisings from March 2011 in Syria. Climate change has only been one factor among several, and an indirect one insofar as its impact was exacerbated by the consequences of decades of natural resource mismanagement.  Yet studies estimate that climate change is likely to put ever greater pressure on natural resources in the region over the next decades, notably regarding the increase of droughts (Femia and Werrell, 2013). Given the many other cleavages in the region, this may never lead to outright 'climate wars'. Yet to limit the potentially exacerbating role of climate change through its impact on crucial natural resources, it will be critical to improve conflict resolution mechanisms in general and natural resource management in particular.
 

 

Intensities & Influences
conflict intensity scale
Intensities
International / Geopolitical Intensity
Human Suffering

Influences
Environmental Influences
Societal Influences

Manifest Crisis
Fatalities
210 000
Violent Conflict Yes
Salience within nation National
Mass Displacement More than 100.000 or more than 10% of the country's population are displaced within the country.
Cross Border Mass Displacement Best estimate that more than 100.000 or more than 10% of country population are displaced across borders.
Destination Countries Jordan
Resources
Agricultural / Pastoral Land, Water, Resilience of the environment
Resolution Success
Reduction in Violence There was no reduction in violence.
Resolve of displacement problems Displacement continues to cause discontent and/or other problems.
Reduction in geographical scope There has been no reduction in geographical scope.
Increased capacity to address grievance in the future There is no increased capacity to address grievances in the future.
Grievance Resolution Grievances have been completely ignored.
Causal Attribution of Decrease in Conflict Intensity There has been no reduction in intensity
General opencollapse
Country Data in Comparison
ConflictNoData Created with Sketch.
Fault Lines Defining Conflict Parties
Purely Environmental | Cultural   ♦   Occupational   ♦   Economic   ♦   Urban / Rural   ♦   National / International conflict   ♦   Sub-national political


Actors
Participation Conflict Party     Conflict Resolution Facilitator
Syria Government
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleInternal National
Syrian Revolutionary Groups
Functional GroupNon-State Violent Actor
Geographical ScaleInternal Grassroots
United Nations
Functional GroupPublic
Geographical ScaleExternal
Entry Points for Resilience and Peace Building
3 Peacekeeping The international community has failed to negotiate a peace agreement between the Syrian government and the rebels despite several attempts. Long-term peace building will only be possible once violence ceases in the country.
0 Cooperation An improved international cooperation over the joint management of transboundary rivers such as the Euphrates River is needed in order to prevent the degradation of soils and the pollution of water
2 Humanitarian & Development aid Several donors including the European Union, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Kuwait, Russia, Hungary and Japan contribute to UN humanitarian operations to address the basic needs of the population and to restore their livelihood.
0 Improving resource efficiency Considering the inefficient water infrastructure in the country, scholars have proposed several technologies and practices that could help reduce the use of water, as well as losses due to damaged infrastructure. An improved resource management is critical, particularly due to the potentially exacerbating role of climate change. Yet, efficiency of the water sector will not only depend on technical solutions, but also a stronger legal framework for the enforcement of water legislation.
Further Details opencollapse
Conflict Characterization
Structure of decision-making power / interdependence Asymmetric: The power to affect the environmental resource is unequal.
Broad conflict characterization Resource Capture is present.
Ecological Marginalization is present.
Data of involved Countries
Resources and Materials opencollapse
Conflict References References with URL